Thursday, February 28, 2013

The Dangers of Exit Polling

After reading about exit polls in Chapter 7 of Polling and the Public, my nonattitude has morphed into a strong opposition of their use. While I understand their utility in helping predict election outcomes, the news media has completely abused them. I am outraged that sometimes candidates concede and elections are effectively over before everyone has had the chance to cast their ballots. This truly means that not every vote counts, especially if you live in the West.

When the East Coast is busy reporting exit poll results, the West's precincts are still open due to the time zone differences. It has been reported that media outlets announce winners (in the polling places!). What is the point of voting if it is for a lost (or won) cause?

It has been suggested that the election coverage be broadcasted according to time zone, but even if TV media does abide to this, the dissemination of knowledge from the internet and other sources will prevail.

Exit polls are also becoming increasingly less accurate because they do not consider absentee ballots and other mail-ins. They only count those on Election Day, and these are subject to lying (think Bradley Effect).

Because they discourage people from later time zones from voting, they leak despite regulation, and are sometimes largely inaccurate, I believe that their use should be prohibited. The only one that matters is the legitimate final count.

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