Stats for Jobs and the Economy, Media Post

There is no doubt that the state of the economy has been on the minds of people since the recession that hit in 2008. Why is it that now on we can have two respected news organizations report conflicting stories within three days of each other? The answer is in the statistics.

In Reuters' “Jobs, factory data point to steady economic growth”, it was reported, “Employers added 157,000 jobs last month and 127,000 more jobs were created in November and December than previously reported... the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 7.9 percent... the Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 53.1 last month, the highest level since April, from 50.2 in December.”

In the New York Times “Jobs Report Offers a Mixed Bag, but Little Comfort” reported: “Payrolls expanded by 36,000 jobs in January, a sharp decline from the gains of recent months... a more encouraging drop in the unemployment rate to 9 percent, from 9.4 percent a month earlier, for its lowest rate since April 2009. The private sector added 50,000 jobs, while government shed 14,000 jobs. Analysts had forecast an overall increase of about 145,000, roughly the number needed to absorb people joining the labor pool in good times.”

The major contributor to this apparent dilemma is that both parties involved tie certain variables to the economy that are not entirely representative of the economy. While unemployment is usually a fairly predictable source for indexing such things as the economy as a whole, both of these organizations report different values.

While perusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) data I found that the first two statements by Reuters' were reported as such, the creation of 157,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 7.9 percent, directly from the BLS. The Reuters article then offers an additional source, the Institute for Supply Management, to help solidify their position that the economy is improving.

This data would appear to discredit the report of 9.0 unemployment rate from the New York Times and their opinion that the economy is not on the rise nor on the fall. I do find it quite peculiar that in the NYT's article they provide a link to the exact same set of data as those reported in Reuters. I would not argue that the numbers posed by the New York times are not true, as it comes down to a matter of definition and that I did not perform the most thorough examination of their values, but that these two conflicting articles would contribute to the idea that sometimes the new's reports what people want to hear. In some cases the news organization is willing to attempt to find obscure (payrolls?) means in order to achieve their goal.

Sources:

“Jobs, factory data point to steady economic growth,” Reuters.com, February 1^st, 2013.

“Jobs Report Offers a Mixed Bag, but Little Comfort,” February 4^th, 2013.

“Economic News Release,” bls.gov, February 1^st, 2013.