Yesterday, CNN said that the PC sales this quarter have declined 13.9% with around 79 million units shipped worldwide, which down were levels were in 2009. They claim this is the worst yearly decline ever seen, after following a 1.6%, 8.1%, and then a 8.6% decline. Thus began speculation of why this was happening, who was to blame, and if it marked the end of PCs all together.
Of course, the real question here is if that decline is statistically significant. It sounds large enough, but let's check anyway. There are a few ways to go about doing this, but what I'll do is compare declines in the past with this most recent trend.
Firstly, we need to determine what number with a 13.9% decline is 79 million, since it is not originally provided in the graph below. The answer ends up being approximately 92 million. Then the same can be done for the other three quarters to yield a value of approximately 111 million at the end of Q1 in 2012. Between Q1 of 2012 and Q1 of 2013, this corresponds to a 29% decline in sales, or around 7.2% per quarter. If we now look at the graph below, we can see that the most right two bars (the ones I added to represent a rough representation of this quarter's and last quarter's sales) don't look very different in height compared to other fluctuations, and represent approximately twice the average decline for this past year.
One notable decline occurred between Q4 for 1998 and Q1 for 1999. There were approximately 33 million PCs sold and then fell to about 24 million. This is a 27% decline. The caveat here is this old decline happened in one quarter, while this newest decline has occurred over one year. It is too soon to worry about trends as only one year has been collected. It is likely that it well within normal fluctuations, especially since the average decline has only been around 7%, and is a significantly lower decline than quarterly declines of the past.
Sources
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/11/technology/pc-sales/?source=cnn_bin
I think I would ask 'Declining because of what?'
ReplyDeleteApple sales were also declining for awhile, infact its hard to say anything is increasing in this economy. Also, PC's tend to live a little longer now. Laptops are more durable. People might not have to replace them as often.
Also, operational definitions are important in this context. What does CNN believe is a PC. Do they only include prebuilt computers? Do they only measure sales from large companies such as Dell and Apple? As aforementioned by Rebecca, the longevity of the PC has increased, and many people are now constructing their own "franken-machines" for their own needs. As new technology comes onto the market, it is usually cheaper to upgrade your current system to a certain threshold (e.g. the maximum capacities of your system in most cases). If CNN does not report all computer component sales as well as those of prebuilt machines, it is hard to say if computer sales have decreased or if they have just shifted to a more computer savvy generation not dependent on prebuilt computers.
ReplyDeleteAs a side note: I agree with the Bob O'Donnell, Window's 8... What did they do to Windows?