Here is a list of things that Nate Silver said in his book - The Signal and the Noise - that people should take into consideration when using statistics to predict.
Focus on what's important - The internet and books are good resources, but you have to choose wisely, because the information is sometimes false, or unnecessary. Pick an important and relevant topic.
Issues that Cloud - There are many issues that seem important now, and that are dramatized, but in the end they have no real importance or impact. Don't get distracted.
Hedgehog or Fox? - This is what Nate Silver refers to as a personality types. Hedgehogs are guided by firm beliefs and foxes are scrappy and flexible. Hedgehogs make good TV guests, but bad predictors. Foxes are not self confident, but they tend to look for things that others don't account for.
Difference between prediction and forecast - a prediction is a specific statement about when something will occur. A forecast is a probabilistic statement.
Be less wrong - adjust predictions as you acquire more data.
Consensus is usually right - The more close polls are, they're probably right!
Be Careful - Sometimes it is difficult to identify when information is important. Be careful with how you analyze and include data.
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