The Butterfly Effect

During our discussion of causality today I couldn’t help but think of Complexity theory and the causal theory known as the Butterfly effect.  This theory which was first posited by Edward Lorenz is based upon the idea that any event, no matter the perceived significance, can alter the events of the future.  The name of the theory is based on Lorenz’s “theoretical explanation that a butterfly could flap its wings and cause a hurricane.”  The idea behind this is that the flap of a butterfly’s wings can so subtly change the atmospheric pressure that it could potentially alter the entirety of a weather system.  If we are to apply this idea to the six degrees of separation which Xavier brought up in class recently we can see how this theory of weather can be applied to social science theory. 

Take this theoretical example.  Let us take an innocuous event like dropping a pencil on the ground and have it be the cause of a national riot in Tralfamador.  Imagine that I had dropped my pencil on the way to class today and did not notice that I had dropped the pencil.  A person who is walking behind me trips on the pencil and injures themselves.  The injured person is left in a bad mood for the remainder of the day and when in a phone conversation later that day yells at their friend who is an ambassador to New Mexico for the great state of Tralfamador.  The ambassador ends the friendship and decides that this person was their last straw in dealing with these crazy New Mexicans and decides to speak to the President of Tralfamador about their interstellar relations with New Mexico.  The President agrees with the ambassador and announces to his country that they will be severing ties with New Mexico.  The country is not happy about this announcement and riots.  This is how a drop of a pencil could cause a riot in Tralfamador.  Although this example is very farfetched, with apologies to Kurt Vonnegut, the social example of the butterfly effect allows for an easier understanding of the complexity which is possible in a chaotic system.