Teen Pregnancy

Given the lack of attention that New Mexico is given in the national media, I was pleasantly surprised to see a picture of Santa Fe gracing my MSN home page this afternoon. My pleasant surprise quickly turned into embarrassment however, as I realized that New Mexico's fame was due to its ranking as the state with the highest teen pregnancy rates in the country. The article dealt with a report that was released today by the  Guttmacher Institute which used 2008 data to rank states on their rate of teen pregnancies. While the data from 2008 is the most recent data available, the statistics calculated from this data are somewhat inapplicable to our current society as they are unlikely to be representative of the current teen pregnancy rates. The article's claim that New Mexico has the highest teen pregnancy rates is a statement that in reality may no longer be valid.

New Mexico topped the list with 93 pregnancies for every 1000 teenagers aged 15-19. New Hampshire ranked lowest of all fifty states reported a measly 33 pregnancies for every 1000 teenagers. What is not explicitly stated in the article is that these rates are adjusted depending on population size. This means that if you were to look at the raw data of number of teen pregnancies, you would find states with the highest populations of teenagers such as New York and California having the highest rates of teen pregnancy. Another interesting find of this article is that the District of Columbia was not included in the ranking due to its lack of official statehood. If D.C. had been included however, it would have usurped New Mexico's place in the rankings with a whopping 112 pregnancies for every 1000 teenagers.

As we talked about in class, it is often beneficial to determine whether observed differences are statistically significant before drawing conclusions about the data. Because this data is presented in a ranking fashion, it is difficult to appreciate the possibility that these observed differences between states might be statistically insignificant. Perhaps a better way to get a clear understanding of this data would be to rank different groups of states on a continuum of teen pregnancy from very low to very high rates. If the data were presented this way, the states could be ranked in a more appropriate fashion with only those that have statistically significant differences being ranked differently from one another.

In addition to ranking the states on their rates of teen pregnancy, this article also talked about trends in teen pregnancy. From 1988-2005 there was a decline in teen pregnancy in every state. From 2005-2008 however, there was an increase in teen pregnancy rates by 5% or more in sixteen states. While it would be possible to draw harsh conclusions from this data alone, the article does a good job of finding possible confounds that could cause these "short-term fluctuations rather than long-term trends". One such confound cited is the effect that Hurricane Katrina had on Louisiana's population in 2005. It is speculated that this decrease in population size lead to rates that were "artificially low", and that would be expected to increase in frequency as the population itself increased.

As is often the case, this article highlights the importance of drawing only conclusions that can be accurately supported by the data. Perhaps claiming that New Mexico has the highest teen pregnancy rates in the country is too hasty of a conclusion to be drawn from data that is five years old.

http://todayhealth.today.com/_news/2013/02/25/17090056-new-mexico-has-highest-teen-pregnancy-rate?lite